How likely is "likely"?

Join the others who've already completed the survey and help us compile the largest public dataset on human perceptions of probability.

All data is collected anonymously and the final dataset will be made publicly available here in Feb 2026.

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (takes a couple of minutes), then you can see how you compare with others.

Part 1: Comparing words

For each pair below, click the term that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Remote Chance
vs
We Believe
Almost No Chance
vs
Highly Likely
Almost Certain
vs
Probable
Better than Even
vs
Very Good Chance

Remember: Click the term with higher probability in each pair.

Chances are Slight
vs
Little Chance
We Doubt
vs
Highly Unlikely
Probably
vs
Improbable
Unlikely
vs
Probably Not
Likely
vs
About Even

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to words

For each term below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the word.

We Believe
%
We Doubt
%
About Even
%
Highly Likely
%
Remote Chance
%
Unlikely
%
Probably
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Very Good Chance
%
Realistic Possibility
%

Keep going, almost there!

Likely
%
Better than Even
%
Probable
%
Improbable
%
Probably Not
%
Little Chance
%
Almost No Chance
%
Almost Certain
%
Chances are Slight
%