How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 5455 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Remote Chance
vs
Probable
Improbable
vs
Likely
Better than Even
vs
About Even
Could Happen
vs
Almost Certain
Might Happen
vs
Will Happen

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Unlikely
vs
Almost No Chance
May Happen
vs
Little Chance
Realistic Possibility
vs
Highly Unlikely
Chances are Slight
vs
Highly Likely
Probable
vs
Remote Chance

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Very Good Chance
%
Improbable
%
Highly Likely
%
Probable
%
Likely
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Little Chance
%
Will Happen
%
Almost No Chance
%
Chances are Slight
%

Keep going, almost there!

Remote Chance
%
Better than Even
%
May Happen
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Might Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Almost Certain
%
Could Happen
%
About Even
%

Additional questions (optional)