How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 5099 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the final dataset will be made publicly available here in Feb 2026. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Almost No Chance
vs
Will Happen
Probable
vs
Improbable
Chances are Slight
vs
Little Chance
Unlikely
vs
Almost Certain
Likely
vs
Very Good Chance

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Highly Unlikely
vs
Highly Likely
About Even
vs
Could Happen
Better than Even
vs
Might Happen
Remote Chance
vs
May Happen
Will Happen
vs
Almost No Chance

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

About Even
%
Chances are Slight
%
Likely
%
May Happen
%
Better than Even
%
Almost No Chance
%
Could Happen
%
Remote Chance
%
Highly Likely
%
Might Happen
%

Keep going, almost there!

Improbable
%
Little Chance
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Very Good Chance
%
Unlikely
%
Probable
%
Will Happen
%
Almost Certain
%

Additional questions (optional)