How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 6981 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Will Happen
vs
Little Chance
Almost No Chance
vs
Could Happen
About Even
vs
Better than Even
Almost Certain
vs
Probable
Highly Likely
vs
Unlikely

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Chances are Slight
vs
Realistic Possibility
May Happen
vs
Likely
Highly Unlikely
vs
Very Good Chance
Improbable
vs
Might Happen
Little Chance
vs
Will Happen

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Better than Even
%
Very Good Chance
%
Almost Certain
%
Probable
%
Almost No Chance
%
Chances are Slight
%
Might Happen
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Likely
%

Keep going, almost there!

Little Chance
%
Improbable
%
Highly Likely
%
Could Happen
%
May Happen
%
Will Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Remote Chance
%
About Even
%

Additional questions (optional)