How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 6995 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Highly Unlikely
vs
May Happen
Improbable
vs
Better than Even
Will Happen
vs
Probable
Almost Certain
vs
Almost No Chance
About Even
vs
Highly Likely

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Very Good Chance
vs
Might Happen
Realistic Possibility
vs
Chances are Slight
Little Chance
vs
Could Happen
Remote Chance
vs
Unlikely
May Happen
vs
Highly Unlikely

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Realistic Possibility
%
May Happen
%
Highly Likely
%
Almost No Chance
%
Likely
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Improbable
%
Will Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Remote Chance
%

Keep going, almost there!

Little Chance
%
Probable
%
Better than Even
%
Almost Certain
%
Very Good Chance
%
Could Happen
%
Might Happen
%
About Even
%
Chances are Slight
%

Additional questions (optional)