How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 6940 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Could Happen
vs
Little Chance
Probable
vs
Remote Chance
May Happen
vs
Unlikely
Likely
vs
Highly Unlikely
Improbable
vs
Highly Likely

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Very Good Chance
vs
Chances are Slight
Might Happen
vs
Will Happen
About Even
vs
Better than Even
Almost Certain
vs
Almost No Chance
Little Chance
vs
Could Happen

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Will Happen
%
Almost Certain
%
Remote Chance
%
About Even
%
Almost No Chance
%
Very Good Chance
%
Highly Likely
%
Chances are Slight
%
May Happen
%
Likely
%

Keep going, almost there!

Unlikely
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Improbable
%
Might Happen
%
Little Chance
%
Better than Even
%
Could Happen
%
Probable
%

Additional questions (optional)