How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 6920 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

May Happen
vs
Improbable
Chances are Slight
vs
Might Happen
Almost Certain
vs
Probable
About Even
vs
Almost No Chance
Could Happen
vs
Very Good Chance

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Better than Even
vs
Unlikely
Little Chance
vs
Highly Unlikely
Remote Chance
vs
Highly Likely
Will Happen
vs
Realistic Possibility
Improbable
vs
May Happen

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Could Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Chances are Slight
%
Improbable
%
Highly Likely
%
Very Good Chance
%
Little Chance
%
Probable
%
Almost No Chance
%
About Even
%

Keep going, almost there!

Highly Unlikely
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Might Happen
%
Almost Certain
%
Will Happen
%
Better than Even
%
Likely
%
May Happen
%
Remote Chance
%

Additional questions (optional)