How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 5394 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Improbable
vs
Probable
About Even
vs
Chances are Slight
Highly Likely
vs
Almost No Chance
Could Happen
vs
Better than Even
Might Happen
vs
Remote Chance

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Little Chance
vs
Likely
May Happen
vs
Very Good Chance
Almost Certain
vs
Highly Unlikely
Unlikely
vs
Will Happen
Probable
vs
Improbable

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Highly Likely
%
Might Happen
%
Will Happen
%
Very Good Chance
%
Almost Certain
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Remote Chance
%
Little Chance
%
About Even
%
May Happen
%

Keep going, almost there!

Likely
%
Almost No Chance
%
Chances are Slight
%
Better than Even
%
Probable
%
Could Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Improbable
%

Additional questions (optional)