How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 6719 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

Almost Certain
vs
Very Good Chance
Might Happen
vs
Unlikely
Will Happen
vs
Likely
Remote Chance
vs
Almost No Chance
Highly Unlikely
vs
Little Chance

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

About Even
vs
Realistic Possibility
Probable
vs
Better than Even
May Happen
vs
Improbable
Highly Likely
vs
Chances are Slight
Very Good Chance
vs
Almost Certain

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Almost No Chance
%
Little Chance
%
Chances are Slight
%
Improbable
%
Likely
%
Very Good Chance
%
Highly Likely
%
Almost Certain
%
About Even
%
Better than Even
%

Keep going, almost there!

Highly Unlikely
%
Remote Chance
%
Will Happen
%
May Happen
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Could Happen
%
Might Happen
%
Unlikely
%
Probable
%

Additional questions (optional)