How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 7032 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

About Even
vs
Probable
Unlikely
vs
Remote Chance
May Happen
vs
Almost Certain
Chances are Slight
vs
Better than Even
Could Happen
vs
Highly Unlikely

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Might Happen
vs
Likely
Little Chance
vs
Will Happen
Very Good Chance
vs
Almost No Chance
Improbable
vs
Highly Likely
Probable
vs
About Even

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Realistic Possibility
%
About Even
%
Chances are Slight
%
Better than Even
%
Highly Likely
%
Almost Certain
%
Unlikely
%
Will Happen
%
Almost No Chance
%
May Happen
%

Keep going, almost there!

Might Happen
%
Very Good Chance
%
Likely
%
Probable
%
Could Happen
%
Remote Chance
%
Highly Unlikely
%
Improbable
%
Little Chance
%

Additional questions (optional)