How likely is 'likely'?

Take this quick quiz to see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with the 7022 other people who have done it so far.

You can read more about the history of probabilistic judgement in my recent blog post.

All data is collected anonymously and the full dataset can be explored here. This website does not collect any personal data (e.g. IP addresses, device identifiers, browser fingerprints, or location data).

Please complete both parts of the survey below to participate (it takes a couple of minutes), then you can compare with others on the next page.

Part 1: Comparing phrases

For each pair below, click the phrase that you think represents a higher probability of something occurring.

May Happen
vs
Better than Even
Almost Certain
vs
Almost No Chance
Very Good Chance
vs
Unlikely
Probable
vs
Might Happen
Highly Unlikely
vs
Remote Chance

Remember: Click the phrase with higher probability in each pair.

Highly Likely
vs
Will Happen
Improbable
vs
Could Happen
Chances are Slight
vs
Realistic Possibility
About Even
vs
Likely
Better than Even
vs
May Happen

Part 2: Allocating probabilities to phrases

For each phrase below, enter a probability value (0-100%) that you think best matches the phrase.

Highly Unlikely
%
Might Happen
%
Could Happen
%
Almost No Chance
%
Improbable
%
Will Happen
%
Little Chance
%
Unlikely
%
May Happen
%
Better than Even
%

Keep going, almost there!

Remote Chance
%
Very Good Chance
%
Highly Likely
%
About Even
%
Likely
%
Chances are Slight
%
Almost Certain
%
Realistic Possibility
%
Probable
%

Additional questions (optional)